Magic Number

The more everyone keeps saying don’t panic, the more I want to panic. I know. I know. You can’t win the division in April or May. But you sure can lose one. Coming into the season, you’d have to be a fool to think it was going to be as easy as last year.  Howard’s Achilles was going to keep him out to May or even the All-Star break depending on who you asked. Every team in the division improved in one way or another.

Other than after their opening day victory the team hasn’t had a winning record. It’s been lose a few, get back to even, lose a few more, get back to even. It’s been my assertion, the team needs to play well enough that when the troops (i.e. Utley and Howard) arrive, they are within striking distance. Don’t let last year fool you 10 games back, isn’t really striking distance.

Normally, the Magic Number refers to the number combination of losses by one team and wins by another to clinch a playoff spot, but for all intensive purposes the Phillies magic number is 500 as in breaking even. Of course there are variables I cannot account for such as how well other teams play, or more importantly if or when the cavalry arrives. But if the Phillies can play .500 ball or slightly over, there won’t be a more favorable year for them to just squeak into the playoffs. First is the playoff expansion. A second wild card team may not be the most ideal situation since it’s a one game playoff, but if the rotation isn’t spent, Halladay, Lee or Hamels vs. whoever isn’t the end of the world. If you win that game, you actually get to start the divisional round with 2 games at home.

Ok but I’m getting ahead of myself. Back to the mediocre team that’s playing now. If you take a look at the last 10 years, a second wild card team would have made the playoffs with an average of 90 wins. The highest total would 93 wins and the lowest 89. And that doesn’t count the fact there were several division winner who had a lower win total than the wild card teams. So how long is it feasible to play .500 ball and stay within contention?

At the midway point if the Phils are 41-41, they’d need to win 62% of their remaining games to reach 90. August 1^st it jumps to 66% and by September its skyrockets to 82%. Basically, I give them until August 15, to be full strength and clicking on all cylinders to have a legitimate shot.

I can’t believe I’m hoping for .500 ball. Damn you, ghost of John Felske, Damn you!

See ya at the ball park!

Jay Wrizight

jaywrizight@yahoo.com

i swear i'm working on something

After 2 weeks of listening to people cry and whine about how bad the Phillies are, I finally actually got to see an ACTUAL game. These West Coast trips are pretty brutal on most Phillies fans but especially on me. The Wriz gets up for work at 2:30. Thats 2:30 AM. The past week, I only got to see one game and that was when I went out to check out a new sports bar, Buffalo Wild Wings. BTW that place blows. I had to ASK them to turn on the game.  For fucks sake, they had on the Sixers and The NY Rangers games. Then, when the UFC started they took the Phillies off the Big Screen and even the medium screens, we basically had to peer into the Kitchen to see what we could of the game on the 13 inch the Dominican bus boys were watching the game on.

So, I wasn't going to miss the afternoon tilt today in the desert. Our boy, Bill S AKA Netfather, was in attendance. He picked a sweet game to go to, but I'm a little disappoined that he didn't streak across the BOB wearing nothing but a Bunts logo. Oh well, hopefully he got a pic for us wearing his bunts swag behind enemy lines.

I'm slowly working up something which I'll post tomorrow.

Hopefully, Bill comes thru like my man Dave did in Clearwater!

FREDDY! FREDDY! FREDDY!

Watching the world's greatest baseball team has been a chore lately. Corey Luebke mows them down like Koufax in his prime. Are you kidding me? The newly acquired bench players are showing why they were bench players in the first place. Other then Juan Pierre, have any of them impressed so far? The 1-2-3 inning offense is getting old quick. Will John Mayberry Jr. drive a ball to the outfield this season? How many times will they have 1st and 2nd with no outs and not score? As 'The Wriz' pointed out earlier this week, Charlie is never going to dazzle us with his 'X's and O's' skills but come on Chuck! Pick up the phone, Charlie, call some other National League manager and ask them to explain the double switch to you. I could go Negadelphia all day. I want to touch on the biggest, nicest surprise so far.

Coming in to the season, the Phillies asked a kid who never played much above the AA level to be their Opening Day second baseman. Plus, the kid was not a second baseman but a shortstop. Seems like a recipe for disaster. Freddy Galvis looks like the best defensive second baseman the Phillies have had since Manny Trillo. Trillo made all the plays and had the strongest arm for a second baseman I have ever seen. Freddy also turns the double play like Trillo and he has only played the position for what? A few months, and that includes Spring Training? Freddy has a strong arm for a shortstop; move him to the other side of second and Wow! The kid is making great plays with the glove every night. The one bright side, the Phillies going down 1-2-3 every inning is Freddy gets back on the field to flash the leather.

Something the Phillies could use, a few quick hits.

- Placido Polanco looks shot at the plate. His bat speed looks gone.

- Not that I'm worried but can Hunter Pence lay off the fastball up in his eyes?

- I fear Michael Stutes may have been a 1/2 a year wonder.

- Kyle Kendrick may get the respect he deserves now that he is in the starting rotation.

- The Nationals look like they are for real.

- Don't let their early success fool you, the Mets still suck.

- Guillen, Reyes, Ramirez, and Zambrano? Too many hot headed hispanics to win consistently.

- Did Freddy Galvis ask 'The Wriz' permission to wear 13? I haven't seen sweet moves by a player wearing 13 since 'The Wriz' pulled a sweet toe drag.

Keep It Classy Phily!

DB29

Raising Hell

Hoodwink’d by cj hood

Raising Hell

Yo! I’m still kinda pissed how last week’s Hoodwink’d turned out with the sh*tty fonts. I write all week from different places and then I do the ole ‘copy & paste-o’ and as a result it looks like a suicide note from a mental patient. Can’t Bill Gates fix this noise? All I got out of last week’s piece was a sympathy comment from DB29…there was some solid material in that ep….go back & check it!

As of Thursday, I saw zero games this week cuz my cable provider is garbage. I missed another poor series by our Phils to the San Fran ‘they might be’ Giants. Lee got me 17 pts in fantasy, but it could have been 27 if Cholly acted like it was 2012 & not 1992. I held back dissing Thome last week, but this week’s different. Don’t play him bro! I love him, but let him serve a mentoring role cuz at this point he couldn’t hit a beachball with a fat bat. While we’re talking about fantasy, on the strength of the Wriz, I started Jon ‘forget the H’ Lester this week. Well he got shelled and I dropped his ass in a fit of rage! Now I’m the laughing stock of my league…but still undefeated mind you!

All in all it’s been a rough week. The ‘youngest teenager’ died who got his start in Illadelphia. Not even Cialis could bring that Dick back! #AB Moreover, our Phils are going down harder than Columbian prostitutes. And like I said, my cable provider blows! So I decided to handle my rage like a man. Since my 9’s fresh out of bullets I decided to pick up the mic and get ill. 

KINGS FROM QUEENS

It’s Sh*tty

This speech is my recital, I think it’s very vital

To show the Phils, don’t be a dilz,

It’s Sh*tty is my title, he we go

It’s sh*tty not to show the Phils,

To show the Phils, I pay my bill

It’s sh*tty, sh-sh-sh*tty, sh*tty

I watch them late and even early, word to Vance Worley!

MLB co blacks them out, I’m dissed like Mr Furley

CSN is really sleazy, got me feeling queasy

3 channels show the Flyers, but no Phils, it’s really cheesy

It’s sh*tty not to show the Phils,

To show the Phils, I pay my bill

It’s sh*tty,

(How is it DB?)

It’s sh*tty, sh*tty

(sh*tty, sh*tty)

In Philly, the girlies talk & want to know the ‘Bunts

They really hawk, but we just walk and tell them ‘wash their…hands’

And it’s a pity, cuz if the Sixers and the Flyers win

I’m stuck watching Real Housewives like to who knows when

It’s sh*tty not to show the Phils,

To show the Phils, I pay my bill

It’s sh*tty,

(How is it Wriz?)

It’s sh*tty, sh*tty

(sh*tty, sh*tty)

***DJ Net Father’s scratch solo***

***Diamond Girl & the Utley Chasers dance routine***

When I wake up gotta check my phone to see if they won

I’m not bitchin, but I’m snitchin, cuz I missed all the fun

People braggin on Facebook ‘bout the stand out star

FML, not LOL because it’s really FUBAR

A girl named Robin posts on Facebook almost all of the time

Won’t diss her or dismiss her cuz she’s in my rhyme

I ain’t lyin, Sixers dyin, THAT I see on TV

Bother my poor father, for the score, cuz he gets the Phillies

It’s sh*tty not to show the Phils,

To show the Phils, I pay my bill

It’s sh*tty,

(How is it?)

It’s sh*tty, sh*tty

(sh*tty, sh*tty)

Wheels wears a plug, y’all on drugs cuz you won’t carry the Phils

Til the Sixers f’ it up like morning after pills

It’s like that y’all, y’all, but I won’t quit

Being a fan, hot damn! cuz this is sh*t!!!!!!!

PS: My cable did show last night’s game….stayed up til 12:30. I hope Pence didn’t get hurt on that awkward slide. AND Wriz also told me to bench Worley this week….lost 25 fantasy points bro. We’re at CBP West (PetCo) this weekend…let’s get ‘bunted!!!

Can We Manage?

If there is one thing the Wriz hates to do, it is to admit he made a mistake.

I remember sitting in my normal Sunday Plan seats at Citizen's Bank Park in the unforgiving summer sun, cursing Charlie Manuel. I said there is no way he should be a National League manager. Not then. Not EVER. The country bumpkin didn't know how to double switch, a necessity for an NL manager. But it got even worse. I actually considered giving up my seats after a particular game against the Houston Astros in 2005. The Phillies and Astros were in the battle for the wildcard. Entering the bottom of the 9th, the Phillies trailed 4-2 and this is what happened:

PHILLIES 9TH: LIDGE REPLACED VIZCAINO (PITCHING); Bell flied to
right; LOFTON BATTED FOR LIEBERTHAL; Lofton singled to shortstop
[Lofton to second (error by Everett)]; Victorino grounded out
(first unassisted) [Lofton to third]; Lidge threw a wild pitch
[Lofton scored]; Howard walked; KATA RAN FOR HOWARD;

What the play-by-play from retrosheet.org doesn't  tell you is how inept Manuel managing was in that inning. As Dan Baker announced that Matt Kata was running for Ryan Howard, I figured he was the fastest bench player available. That Endy Chavez was unavailable due to some type of nagging injury.

  Rollins doubled to right [Kata to third];

As I watched the ball roll down the right field line I'm yelling, "Send him, send him!" Kata strolled into third standing up, the crowd was going nuts, the Phillies had the tying run on third and I was like, "FUCK Chavez would scored easy."  For those of you who had yet to catch Phillies Fever, Endy Chavez was the fastest Phillie I had seen since Jeff Stone. He had a lousy bat and was mediocre in the field, but my man could run like a degenerate gambler with an underpaid bookie on his tail.

CHAVEZ BATTED FOR WAGNER;
Chavez struck out; 1 R, 2 H, 1 E, 2 LOB. Astros 4, Phillies 3.

And there is was Chavez and all his speed stranded in the batters box by strike three. The Astros went on to win the final 2 games of the series and the Wild Card over the Phillies by one stinkin game. One fucking game!

Fast forward 3 years and on October 29th, 2008, Brad Lidge fell to his knees and moments later the frenzied crowd was chanting "Charlie! Charlie! Charlie!" My friend Doug turned and said, "What do you think of Charlie now?" "He's ok. He gets a pass," I responded. And there lays my mistake, thinking that fool could actually manage.

I like Charlie. I'd buy a car from him.

This year, more so than any other the Phillies NEED a manager who can actually manage, The upgraded bench is all for nothing if its not used correctly. Take last night for example. In the 8th inning the Phils are down 4-2. Pence grounds out, Wiggy follows suit. Manuel sends up Thome. There's 2 outs. Nobody's on and you're going to send up Thome to swing for the fences? He can't field and he can't run. Ok, where's the sense in that? I guess it's better to lose by one? I haven't studied the new tiebreakers in the new playoff system but I guess run differential ranks pretty high.

Maybe Charlie can prove me wrong once again and maybe Juan Pierre and throw a one hop laser from the warning track that cuts down Michael Bourn tagging from third. You never know.

Maybe he better suited for this?

See ya at the ball park!

Jay Wrizight
jaywrizight@yahoo.com

Don't Hit the Panic Button!

Oh no! A 3-5 start. 2 straight losses to the New York Muts. The Flyers score more goals in a 5 minute stretch then the Phillies score runs all game. The sky is falling. Every call on 94 WIP is of the "Break this team up, trade this one or that one" variety. Everyone is so quick to trash this team that brought us such joy for 6 or 7 years. Negadelphia is in full effect. Everyone needs to take a deep breath. We are 8 games into a 162 game season. They have played less then 5% of the season. Are the Flyers out of a game when they are down 3-0 in the first period? Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? There are some recent examples of why there is no reason to panic.

 

The Phillies have played poorly in April recently and have been fine. Last year was the first good April they had in a long time, 18-8. In 2010 they were 12-10 and in 3rd place. In 2009 they were 11-9 and in 2nd. In 2008, hey that year rings a bell, they were 15-13 in April and in 3rd place. All these years ended with at least a NL East Division Title. Last year the Red Sox were 11-15 in April. They missed the playoffs on the last day off the season. A few more Papelbon saves away from the post season. Their loss our gain. The Braves had a 10 game losing streak last year. They would have made the playoffs if they played the Muts in their final series instead of the Phillies.

If the Phillies can hover around .500 till the cavalry arrives, (Howard and hopefully Utley) they should be ok. Wigginton, Pierre and Galvis are not every day major league players. Hopefully one steps up till then. Freddy can play the field, maybe his bat stays hot. It's hard to go on a long losing streak with a starting rotation like this. There is a reason studs like Halladay, Lee and Hamels are called 'Stoppers'. Plus, we know RAJ likes to make deals at the trade deadline. He got Pence, Oswalt, Lee and Blanton all at the trade deadline. They all worked out to some degree or another. Don't jump off the bandwagon just yet. So, Bunter's, if I see you walking around on crutches at the 'Bunters and Bloggers Summit' on June 3rd, you better have a funny story.

 

Keep It Classy Philly!

DB29

WILSON!!!

Hoodwink’d by cj hood

WILSON!!!

THE REAL WILSON HAS A BETTER GOATEE!

-3-3 pheeeeew….

-how’s that new baseball team working out for you Miami? #fcastro

-when I think of our bench I can’t get TLC’s “No Scrubs” out of my head.

-Wilson (Valdez duh) > Herndon

-I thought I friended the Real Housewives on FB til I realized it was just Wriz & DB29

bickering about their season tix.

-Who's on first? #notmayberry

-Francisco > Nix

-Herndon's like Cousin Oliver...when he shows up shit gets hectic.

-Pence was safe, but Pierre was out!

-yo We Should Be GMs….stop bitin my style!!!

-I disagree with Guillen’s views, but I did like the idea of a Cuban Cigar giveaway.

-go white boy! go white boy! go! #presley

-RIP Chief Jay Strongbow

-Who's on first? #notgalvis

-Santorum – 0; internet porn – 1

-who’s going to the 3Stooges movie this wknd?

-Lassie’s a better actor than Pence. #breadpeddler

-I hate when Guillen talks Spanish & Cholly talks bumpkin.

-I loved Papelbon’s Lidge impersonation last night…spot on!

-how ‘bout a slow clap for Doc?!?

DID I DO THAT? #HERNDON

-Ibanez > Pierre

-I want to make a joke about Thome’s at-bats, but I can’t.

-HK gone, but not forgotten.

-I liked Republicans sticking up for millionaires better when it went by its original name.

#stockholm syndrome

-11 hits....it could be done!

-black cats, Jason Vorhees, Braves #fridaythe13th

-Kim Jong Un couldn’t get his rocket up…it happens. #nottome

-Congrats to the Beastie Boys for getting inducted in the RnR HOF this weekend.

-every time Robin posts on FB, I’m doing a shot. #joshhamiltondrunk

-hey Ragu: you ever get Laverne & Shirley at the same time?

-Pat is retiring, but ‘the bat’ will be active until 2052.

-I’d rather see Sarge do the post game interviews.

-trade Hamels for a bat.

-anyone else catch the reference in the title of D*Girl’s blog besides myself?

-Rollins, Pence & Victorino #solid

-Can’t Chooch catch EVERY game?

-‘Howard’s wound is so deep you could stick your fingers in it’ #dramarojr

-I don’t have Flyers Fever just yet, but I do have a strange rash on my upper leg.

-email Karen@comedycabaret.com and tell her you want to see cj hood at the Comedy Cabaret.

-Mets are getting spanked this weekend….let’s get ‘bunted!!!